We’re going to do something different this week. Since Selection Sunday is creeping up on us, I’m going to talk about different scenarios that may play out for some bubble teams.
Saint Mary’s: Patrick Mills comes back. A month ago, I thought the season was over for the Gaels when Mills was injured and it appeared I was correct in my assumption when they lost four of five. However, the Gaels have rebounded to win three straight and when the committee gets in the room, they’re going to consider the Gaels record with Mills. They have two games left in the regular season and the conference tournament. Let’s say the Gaels win all their games up to the West Coast Conference Championship where they would lose to Gonzaga. They would have lost only 2 games without Mills vs. 24 wins. Are wins over Providence, San Diego St, and Utah St worth an At-large bid?
Creighton: The Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 and have snatched the lead from Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley. They have two games left in the regular season and would win two games to get the the MVC championship game. If the Blue Jays were able to win every game left except the championship game, they’d be 27-7, probably 11-5 against the top-100, 11-1 in their last 12, and the regular season winner of the 9th rated conference in the country. That resume has been good enough to get you in in the past. Will it be this season?
New Mexico: The Lobos are currently in a 3-way tie for second in the Mountain West Conference. They’ve beaten UNLV, BYU, and San Diego St in conference with a win over Ole Miss out-of-conference. For the sake of argument, let’s say they win 3 out of their last 4 and finish in 3rd place. They win their first-round game and then lose their semi-final game. Will that be enough to get the Lobos to the tournament?
Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish have won 3 out of it’s last 4 after losing the previous 7. They have four games left in the regular season including two against UCONN and Villanova. Let’s say the Irish go 3 of 4 and win it’s first 2 games in the Big East tournament. That’ll be four wins over teams in the NCAA tournament and three of those wins would’ve come in it’s last 10. Will 9-9 in the Big East get Notre Dame in?
This week’s Bracket Projections:
Last Four In: Texas A&M, Michigan, Tennessee, Maryland
Last Four Out: Temple, USC, St. Mary’s, USC
This bracket is good for games played thru Sunday, February22, 2009.
1.Pittsburgh16.Tenn-Martin/Alabama St Dayton, OH
8.Utah St9.Boston College
5.Washington12.Tennessee Portland, OR
6.West Virginia11.Michigan Miami, FL
3.Clemson14.North Dakota St
7.Arizona10.Kentucky Kansas City, MO
2.Memphis15.Stephen F. Austin
1.North Carolina16.Jacksonville Greensboro, NC
5.Illinois12.BYU Portland, OR
6.California11.Maryland Minneapolis, MN
7.Dayton10.Penn St Philadelphia, PA
1.Oklahoma16.Long Beach St Kansas City, MO
5.Arizona St12.Siena Boise, ID
6.Xavier11.Minnesota Miami, FL
7.UCLA10.UNLV Greensboro, NC
1.Connecticut16.Radford Philadelphia, PA
8.Ohio St9.South Carolina
5.Utah12.Texas A&M Boise, ID
4.Wake Forest13.Virginia Commonwealth
6.Florida St11.Creighton Minneapolis, MN
3.Michigan St14.Weber St
7.Gonzaga10.Syracuse Dayton, OH